When a politician talks fiscal responsibility, he or she is probably lying.

Hate to insert a dose of reality into all the political rhetoric. But all that talk about cutting taxes and getting rid of deficits?

I need to call it what it is: Bullshit.

Here’s the truth, thanks to Dave Manuel.com. In the last 40 years, the federal budget has been in surplus four times--from 1998 through 2001. So keep that in mind every time you see an ad with some politician talking about how he or she plans to bring fiscal sanity to Washington.  The fact is, politicians just find it easier to borrow to spend on their favorite programs.  For Republicans, that would be tax cuts for the rich.  For the Democrats, name your favorite social project.  For neither party is an actual balanced budget much of a priority, as history shows us.

I suppose those of us who think we would be better off if the federal government lived within its means and paid for such things as wars through the taxes collected have one hope in this dispiriting period: The one time in the last 40 years when we managed a balanced budget, we had a Democratic president and a Republican Congress.

Looking past the election: Can they work together?

Conciliation was the order of the day today for President Barack Obama.

House Minority Leader John Boehner, the man likely to be the next Speaker of the House, if polls are to be believed, sounded a similarly conciliatory note.

The two men showed in their weekly addresses that the next two years in Washington won’t be easy, but may not be the gridlock many expect. There could be common ground on taxes, on spending and on economic recovery, even if it isn’t easy to find.

Boehner made clear that his party was committed to a break from its own past of wild spending (the only time since at least the 1970s that the budget has been balanced was when Democrat Bill Clinton was in the White House and Republicans controlled Congress). Here’s some of what he had to say:
 

To cut spending, we have to change Congress itself. This is a new way forward that hasn’t been tried…Frankly, it’s a break from the direction that Republicans were headed the last time Americans entrusted us with the reins of government. The American people are in charge and they deserve nothing less. Together we can do these things and in doing so we can begin the drive to a smaller, less costly and more accountable government that honors our Constitution and respects the will of the American people.

The president, meanwhile, is also clearly looking to a Congress where it won’t be so easy to get his own way. But he, too, was making the case for comity in the future. He said:

Whatever the outcome on Tuesday, we need to come together to help put people who are still looking for jobs back to work.  And there are some practical steps we can take right away to promote growth and encourage businesses to hire and expand.  These are steps we all should be able to agree on – not Democratic or Republican ideas, but proposals that have traditionally been supported by both parties. We ought to provide continued tax relief for middle class families who have borne the brunt of the recession.  We ought to allow businesses to defer taxes on the equipment they buy next year.  And we ought to make the research and experimentation tax credit bigger and permanent – to spur innovation and foster new products and technologies. Beyond these near-term steps, we should work together to tackle the broader challenges facing our country – so that we remain competitive and prosperous in a global economy.  That means ensuring that our young people have the skills and education to fill the jobs of a new age.  That means building new infrastructure – from high-speed trains to high-speed internet – so that our economy has room to grow.  And that means fostering a climate of innovation and entrepreneurship that will allow American businesses and American workers to lead in growth industries like clean energy. On these issues – issues that will determine our success or failure in this new century – I believe it’s the fundamental responsibility of all who hold elective office to seek out common ground.  It may not always be easy to find agreement; at times we’ll have legitimate philosophical differences.  And it may not always be the best politics.  But it is the right thing to do for our country.

It seems pretty clear that the man who already holds the most power in the United States, and the one likely to wield a pretty big stick himself, are looking ahead to a time when they have to work with each other. That’s actually a heartening thought. I certainly hope I’m reading it right.

Are electric cars for real?

On the day electric car maker Tesla Motors Inc. officially reopened the only auto making plant in California, the NUMMI facility in Fremont, to build electric cars, J.D. Powers & Associates threw some cold water on the whole idea of electric and hybrid vehicles.

The respected J.D. Powers released a report saying that only 7.3 percent of the automobiles on the road come 2020 will be electric or hybrid. The report is something of a counter to all the hype electric vehicles have been getting this year. But some important players in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Tokyo, India and China expect a more rapid transition to an electric car, and furthermore, a cleantech, economy.

Here’s what J.D. Powers analysts had to say about the growth expected in the electric and hybrid vehicle market worldwide over the next 10 years:

In 2010, the total number of passenger vehicles sold worldwide is expected to reach 44.7 million units. Of this number, approximately 954,000 vehicles—or 2.2% of the global total—employ some type of battery propulsion system, either hybrid electric or pure battery-driven. By 2020, global passenger-vehicle sales are expected to reach 70.9 million units, of which 5.2 million units (7.3% of the total) will feature some type of battery-powered configuration.

J.D. Powers’ analysts point out, rightly, that there will have to be major improvements in battery technology and electric drive trains, and prices will have to come down for those technologies before there’s widespread adoption.

But others, including one of the key backers of Tesla, expect those developments very quickly. And still others say necessity will drive that wave of invention.

Alan Salzman of Vantage Point Ventures told me in the spring that he expected electric vehicle technology and adoption to follow a similar curve to that of such technologies as the personal computer and flat screen television—once-luxury items that have become common objects as technology has both dropped in price and improved. Salzman expects a much more robust adoption of electric vehicles. Here’s what he told me:

We’re just into the first and second generation of electric cars. Looking at the past ability of Silicon Valley and other innovation centers to improve technology rapidly, the next generations will be better, faster, and cheaper. And that will mean much more rapid adoption of electric cars than is commonly projected, he believes. “So if it were a five-person car and it cost $25,000, comparable to a Prius, why would anyone drive anything else? I think the answer is, 'hmmm, I don’t think you would,'” he says. “So electric cars are an inevitability because the electric motor is inherently more efficient and more effective than a combustion engine.” While auto analysts expect slower adoption of electric vehicles, Salzman says they’re too pessimistic. He believes a tipping point in that phase could be reached in the next 10 to 15 years.

There are other reasons for both electric cars and new forms of energy to advance rapidly.

First, as famed oil banker Matt Simmons pointed out before his death earlier this year, the world has likely already passed peak oil production. Others dispute that claim, but there’s no doubt that oil is getting harder and more dangerous to find, as oil companies drill deeper and deeper under the ocean. And demand for energy is going to rise.

As I wrote this spring:

It took a century for citizens of the United States and Western Europe to achieve a robust standard of living. In China and India, the Earth’s two most-populous nations with a combined population of 2.47 billion, people are bent on achieving that same standard in the next 20 years. What that means is tremendous demand for the staples of modern life: energy, steel, concrete, clean water. New supplies will either have to be found or invented—fast. That’s why a number of venture capitalists believe the next big development in their industry and among the companies they support will dwarf even the information-technology revolution of the past two decades.

So that kind of outlook predicts robust growth not just for alternative energy to drive vehicles, but other portions of modern economies.

And when it comes to electric cars and hybrids, venture capitalists aren’t the only ones betting on electric vehicles--not by a long shot. The largest car companies in the world are also well into the game, as are some of the biggest makers of batteries, the key component in electric cars.

Toyota, the world’s biggest car company, invested $50 million in Tesla when that company became the first American car company to go public since Ford in the 1950s. Toyota--which already has the franchise on the best-selling hybrid, the Prius--is also paying Tesla $60 million to develop an electric drivetrain for its RAV4 crossover.

Tesla will be expanding its own offerings at the NUMMI factory opened last week. So far, the company has only built cars for the elite--six-figure, high-performance, two-seat roadsters. But at NUMMI, the company will be developing the Model S, an all electric luxury sedan. And CEO Elon Musk said he hopes to develop lower cost electric vehicles in the future.

Nissan and General Motors are rolling out either electric, or extended-range hybrids this year. And companies as diverse as China’s BYD, in which Warren Buffett is an investor; India’s Tata; Ford and Volkswagen all have plans for electric vehicles and better hybrids.

Perhaps as importantly, two of the world’s largest battery makers have announced a partnership to develop and market batteries for electric vehicles. Japan’s Hitachi, and Johnson Controls of Milwaukee are teaming up in the battery game.

Hitachi was one of the first companies in the world to develop lithium ion batteries, the core of current technology for electric vehicles. And Johnson Controls is the world’s biggest maker of lead acid batteries, the batteries used in current internal combustion engine driven cars.

Given all that, it should be an interesting 10 years. Will companies be able to quickly develop electric cars as something other than a luxury or an oddity? And will consumers across the world gravitate quickly to the change? Or will it be a slower movement, as the folks at J.D. Powers expect?

Of Fear, Sanity and Media Wars in D.C.

Of Fear, Sanity and Media Wars in D.C.

The Tea Party shows its true stripes

First, we were treated to Sarah Palin's buddy Joe Miller's bully boys handcuffing a reporter asking a candidate legitimate questions on public property and Miller saying the East Germans had the right idea about border control. Now Rand Paul's thug stomps on the head of a woman who disagrees with him. Whose country is it they're trying to take back: Stalin's Russia? Hitler's Germany? Thanks but no thanks.

Poll shows Obama surge

Looks like the elections might not be over after all, despite all the inside-the-beltway consensus that this year will be a bloodbath for Democrats and a triumph for Republicans.

A Newsweek poll shows Dems closing the much-ballyhooed "enthusiasm gap" with Republicans, and a jump in the approval rate for President Barack Obama. Here's what Newsweek has to say:

The poll finds that 48 percent of registered voters would be more likely to vote for Democrats, compared with 42 percent who lean Republican.President Obama’s approval ratings have jumped substantially, crossing the magic halfway threshold to 54 percent, up from 48 percent in late September, while the portion of respondents who disapprove of the president dropped to 40 percent, the lowest disapproval rating in a NEWSWEEK Poll since February 2010. 

Newsweek cautions that Bill Clinton experienced a similar surge in 1994, and Democrats still took a trouncing.

But maybe, just maybe, all the talking the president's been doing about his agenda and Republicans' lack of one is having an effect.

Meanwhile, most prognosticators still predict a Republican takeover of at least one house of Congress. So the Republican leadership, at least, better be thinking seriously about what they'll really do to work with the president if they gain a majority in one or both Houses of Congress. The public won't stand for more out-and-out obstructionism in the face of two wars and an economy in the tank.

And we do have the recent history of the Clinton and Reagan presidencies to show that the country, at least, can prosper under a divided government--if politicians on both sides of the aisle walk a little bit away from partisanship and toward cooperation.

Jerry Brown takes a shot at Meg Whitman's voting record

Jerry Brown, in his effort to return to the California governor's mansion, is taking shot at rival former eBay CEO Meg Whitman's record of avoiding the polls. Significantly, he made his case at a predominantly African American Church, the Los Angeles Times reports. Democrats nationwide are looking to get their voters to the polls to minimize Republican gains, since Republicans have a pretty clear edge when it comes to excitement this year. Here's what Brown had to say about Whitman's record of staying home, according to the Times:

 “A lot of people struggled a lot. People died to vote, so that’s why it’s so important to go out there and do it,” he told the audience at Greater Zion church in Compton.“You’ve probably heard that the person I’m running against didn’t vote most of the time,” Brown added. “But I’m not going to talk about that because you already know it.” There and at several other churches, Brown used biblical references to draw murmurs of assent from the crowd.“With your help and God’s blessings, we’ll make it work for everyone, not just the powerful, not just the people who seek out fame,” Brown told hundreds at First A.M.E. Church in the West Adams neighborhood of Los Angeles before a reference to Luke: “The children of darkness in their own way are pretty smart, but this is the time for the children of light.”

Notably, the other Republican millionaire running for high office in California, Carly Fiorina, also has a spotty voting record.

Glenn Beck: A blight on the nation

If there’s anyone in America who shouldn’t be able to sleep at night, it’s Glenn Beck.

Oh, I know Rush Limbaugh has gotten rich spouting absurdity, but I’ve listened Limbaugh once or twice and I confess that he’s at least funny, wrongheaded as he is.

But Beck is getting rich appealing to the very basest instincts on the American right-wing fringe. I would say the same of someone doing the same on the left--but Keith Olbermann just doesn’t compare.

The latest Beck outrage is his inspiration, apparently, of a nut case in California deciding to arm himself to the teeth to waste progressives of all types. In my book, it’s the kind of thing that if there were a God of justice would land you in the lowest circles of hell. So sleep well on your pile of money Mr. Beck, and good luck destroying the Republic.

Hurray for the Hobbit

You have to grab the good news where you can get it these days. So here's one happy bit from the Washington Post. Peter Jackson has agreed to direct "Lord of the Rings" prequel "The Hobbit." Put that together with the upcoming release of the upcoming release of the first part of "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows" and I, at least, am a happy camper.

U.S. to investigate China renewable cheating, and a roundup of big green business news

The Obama White House took action Friday that indicates the administration may really be taking jobs in the clean energy sector seriously, despite its disappointing performance so far on getting global warming legislation through Congress.

And there’s other encouraging news this week from the private sector on the green business front--one of the few areas of the economy that actually shows some robust job growth, and one of the areas that we should be looking to as we look to create a sustainable and powerful new economy.

The administration has agreed to investigate a complaint by the United Steelworkers that China is cheating when it comes to building its solar and wind power manufacturing. The union filed its complaint last month, arguing that the Chinese government was heavily subsidizing its clean energy industry, in violation of World Trade Organization rules and, apparently, our government is concerned enough to launch a probe of its own.

China has in the past few years become a clean energy powerhouse, quickly becoming the largest manufacturer of solar panels in the world and building a wind turbine industry from scratch. Most of that capacity has been directed at the export markets in the U.S. and Europe, instead of addressing the Middle Kingdom’s own gaping energy needs.

And that has organizations like the steelworkers concerned, lest the budding U.S. clean energy sector be strangled in its crib by unfair competition from abroad.

It’s important, too, because the U.S. industry is actually one of the few sectors of our economy that’s producing robust job growth, and because it is a cradle of innovation that others in the world are turning to for both inspiration and practical work.

Just this week, three events showed just how robust a powerful U.S. green companies and businesses could become, and how that could change our economy and the world.
First, on the jobs front, the Solar Foundation released its first ever jobs census for the U.S. solar industry and it shows big growth in jobs available--something so important it can hardly be overstated in an economy still stagnating with an unemployment rate near 10 percent following the Great Recession.

According to the report, jobs in the U.S. solar industry is growing jobs at a time when 16 percent of small businesses say they plan to cut positions.

Here’s a taste of what the jobs census has to say about solar companies and their job plans:

The Solar Foundation, helped by Cornell University, found that there were 93,000 jobs tied to the industry, about double the number in 2009, and 50 percent of the companies involved in it plan to hire in the coming months. Granted, that’s a small start, but I’d wager there are relatively few fields today where you could expect a similarly sunny outlook. And--and this is almost as important--the companies involved are small businesses, ranging from 14 to 24 workers, just the kind of companies that, if nurtured, could have limitless potential to grow into giants.

And while the solar power industry census shows a young industry that’s growing like a weed, the wind industry also got a boost this week with plans announced to build an underwater superhighway for electric transmission off the east coast, setting the stage to carry as much electricity from offshore wind farms five large nuclear reactors would.

The wind farms, of course, don’t exist yet, and the $5 billion transmission line from New Jersey to Norfolk, Virginia, will have to go through the arduous process of government approvals.But the project by Maryland’s Trans-Elect has some very impressive backers in Google, New York investment firm Good Energies, and Japanese firm Marubeni.

On its blog, Google points out, the transmission line would carry enough electricity to equal, “60 percent of the wind energy that was installed in the entire country last year and enough to serve approximately 1.9 million households,"

Google is an especially interesting investor, since the search and advertising giant has consistently shown it’s willing to put at least some of its massive amounts of cash to work on green energy projects. As I pointed out at Portfolio.com:

“The company has one of the largest corporate solar installations in the country at its Mountain View, California, headquarters. That installation generates 1.6 megawatts of power, enough for about 1,000 homes. Google has also invested in several up-and-coming alternative-energy companies—including solar firms BrightSource and eSolar and geothermal energy firm AltaRock.”

And on its corporate site, the company has this to say about a green future:

“The U.S. has a real opportunity to transform our economy from one running on fossil fuels to one largely based on clean energy. The energy team at Google has been crunching the numbers to see how we could greatly reduce fossil fuel use by 2030. Our analysis suggests a potential path to weaning the U.S. off of coal and oil for electricity generation by 2030 (with some remaining use of natural gas as well as nuclear), and cutting oil use for cars by 40 percent. Over 22 years, this plan could generate billions of dollars in savings and help create millions of green jobs.”

For another U.S. company in the green space, this week was a positive one as well. Tesla Motors Inc.--the electric car company that this summer became the first U.S. auto manufacturer since Ford Motor Company to go public--has attracted a $60 million investment from Toyota to develop an electric drive train for its RAV-4. It’s further evidence that the movement toward electric vehicles is gaining traction, and U.S. industry has the opportunity to be at the heart of that movement.

Finally, Wal-Mart continues to surprise with its commitment to the green movement. The world’s biggest retailer has long been a leader in cleaning up its supply chain and pressuring its suppliers to reduce packaging waste.

Now, Wal-Mart is joining the local food movement, on a global scale. The company announced this week it will stress local sourcing for its produce departments. That’s a pretty big commitment for a retailer of Wal-Mart’s size. The company makes about half of its money from its grocery operations.